School of Medicine, Pharmacy, and Health, Durham University Queen's Campus, University Boulevard, Thornaby, Stockton on Tees, TS17 6BH, UK.
Trends Parasitol. 2013 Nov;29(11):548-55. doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2013.08.007. Epub 2013 Sep 21.
Climate change will inevitably influence both the distribution of Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium and the incidence of schistosomiasis in areas where it is currently endemic, and impact on the feasibility of schistosomiasis control and elimination goals. There are several limitations of current models of climate and schistosome transmission, and substantial gaps in empirical data that impair model development. In this review we consider how temperature, precipitation, heat waves, drought, and flooding could impact on snail and schistosome population dynamics. We discuss how widely used degree day models of schistosome development may not be accurate at lower temperatures, and highlight the need for further research to improve our understanding of the relationship between air and water temperature and schistosome and snail development.
气候变化将不可避免地影响曼氏血吸虫和埃及血吸虫的分布，以及目前流行地区血吸虫病的发病率，并影响到血吸虫病控制和消除目标的可行性。目前的气候和血吸虫传播模型存在若干局限性，而且经验数据也存在很大差距，影响了模型的开发。在这篇综述中，我们考虑了温度、降水、热浪、干旱和洪水如何影响蜗牛和血吸虫种群动态。我们讨论了广泛使用的血吸虫发育日度模型在较低温度下可能不准确，并强调需要进一步研究，以增进我们对空气和水温度与血吸虫和蜗牛发育之间关系的理解。
