Lewallen Susan, Courtright Paul, Etya'ale Daniel, Mathenge Wanjiku, Schmidt Elena, Oye Joseph, Clark Anne, Williams Talithia
Kilimanjaro Centre for Community Ophthalmology International, Groote Schuur Hospital , Observatory , South Africa .
Ophthalmic Epidemiol. 2013 Oct;20(5):260-6. doi: 10.3109/09286586.2013.823215.
To apply a previously described mathematical model, designed to estimate cataract incidence from age-specific prevalence, to Rapid Assess of Avoidable Blindness survey data from Sub-Saharan Africa in order to estimate the incidence of cataract and therefore surgical needs.
All Rapid Assessment of Avoidable Blindness surveys from Sub-Saharan Africa were identified. A previously developed mathematical model, designed to estimate the incidence of operable cataract was applied to those (27/32) meeting the inclusion criteria.
Incidence varied significantly across the continent with the result that cataract surgery rate targets required to eliminate cataract vary too. When variation in age structure is also taken into account, the cataract surgery rate needed to eliminate cataract visual impairment at the level of 6/18 ranges from 1200-4500 surgeries per year per million population.
This is important evidence of significant variation in the incidence of cataract within Sub-Saharan Africa. The variation may be related to genetic or cultural variations on the continent and has important implications for planning services.
应用一个先前描述的数学模型，该模型旨在根据特定年龄的患病率估算白内障发病率，将其应用于撒哈拉以南非洲地区的可避免盲症快速评估调查数据，以估算白内障发病率及相应的手术需求。
确定了撒哈拉以南非洲地区所有的可避免盲症快速评估调查。一个先前开发的用于估算可手术白内障发病率的数学模型被应用于符合纳入标准的调查（27/32）。
整个非洲大陆的发病率差异显著，因此消除白内障所需的白内障手术率目标也各不相同。当考虑年龄结构差异时，在6/18视力水平消除白内障视力损害所需的白内障手术率为每百万人口每年1200 - 4500例手术。
这是撒哈拉以南非洲地区白内障发病率存在显著差异的重要证据。这种差异可能与该大陆的遗传或文化差异有关，对规划服务具有重要意义。
