Lemp G F, Payne S F, Rutherford G W, Hessol N A, Winkelstein W, Wiley J A, Moss A R, Chaisson R E, Chen R T, Feigal D W
AIDS Office, Department of Public Health, City and County of San Francisco, Calif 94102.
JAMA. 1990 Mar 16;263(11):1497-501.
To develop a model for predicting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) morbidity in San Francisco, Calif, through June 1993, we combined annual human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion rates for homosexual and bisexual men and for heterosexual intravenous drug users with estimates of the cumulative proportion of the population with AIDS by duration of human immunodeficiency virus infection and with estimates of the size of the at-risk populations. We projected AIDS mortality by applying Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival time following diagnosis to the projected number of cases. The median incubation period for AIDS among homosexual and bisexual men infected with the human immunodeficiency virus was estimated to be 11.0 years (mean, 11.8 years; 95% confidence interval, 10.6 to 13.0 years). The model projects 12,349 to 17,022 cumulative cases of AIDS in San Francisco through June 1993, with 9,966 to 12,767 cumulative deaths.
为建立一个预测加利福尼亚州旧金山截至1993年6月后天免疫机能丧失综合症（艾滋病）发病率的模型，我们将同性恋和双性恋男性以及异性恋静脉吸毒者的年度人类免疫缺陷病毒血清转化率，与按人类免疫缺陷病毒感染持续时间估算的艾滋病患者累计比例以及高危人群规模的估算值相结合。我们通过将诊断后生存时间的Kaplan-Meier估计值应用于预计病例数来预测艾滋病死亡率。感染人类免疫缺陷病毒的同性恋和双性恋男性中艾滋病的中位潜伏期估计为11.0年（平均为11.8年；95%置信区间为10.6至13.0年）。该模型预测，截至1993年6月，旧金山艾滋病累计病例数为12,349至17,022例，累计死亡数为9,966至12,767例。
