Université Paris-Est, LEESU (UMR MA102), UPEC, UPEMLV, ENPC, AgroParisTech, 94010 Créteil, France.
Sci Total Environ. 2014 Jan 15;468-469:1059-68. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.09.029. Epub 2013 Oct 4.
This study aims at modelling the daily concentrations of nonylphenolic compounds such as 4-nonylphenol (4-NP), nonylphenol monoethoxylate (NP1EO) and nonylphenoxy acetic acid (NP1EC) within the Seine River downstream of Paris City for over a year, firstly in the present state (year 2010) and for years 2050 and 2100 in order to assess the consequences of global change on the fate of nonylphenolic compounds in the Seine river. Concentrations were first simulated for the year 2010 and compared to monthly measured values downstream of Paris. To achieve this goal, the hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model, ProSe, was updated to simulate the fate of 4-NP, NP1EO and NP1EC. The Seine upstream and Oise River (tributaries of the Seine River) concentrations are estimated according to concentrations-flow relationships. For Seine Aval wastewater treatment plant (SA-WWTP), the concentrations are considered constant and the median values of 11 campaigns are used. The biodegradation kinetics of 4-NP, NP1EO and NP1EC in the Seine River were deduced from the results of the companion paper. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient indicates a good efficiency to simulate the concentrations of 4-NP, NP1EC and NP1EO over an entire year. Eight scenarios were built to forecast the impacts of global warming (flow decrease), population growth (SA-WWTP flow increase) and optimisation of wastewater treatment (improvement of the quality of effluents) on annual concentrations of 4-NP, NP1EO and NP1EC at Meulan by 2050 and 2100. As a result, global warming and population growth may increase the concentrations of 4-NP, NP1EC and NP1EO, especially during low-flow conditions, while the optimisation of wastewater treatment is an efficient solution to balance the global change by reducing WWTP outflows.
本研究旨在对巴黎下游塞纳河的壬基酚化合物（如 4-壬基酚（4-NP）、壬基酚单乙氧基化物（NP1EO）和壬基酚乙氧基羧酸（NP1EC））的日浓度进行建模，建模时间跨度超过一年，分别为当前状态（2010 年）和 2050 年、2100 年，以评估全球变化对这些壬基酚化合物在塞纳河归宿的影响。首先模拟 2010 年的浓度，并与巴黎下游的每月实测值进行比较。为实现这一目标，对水动力和生物地球化学模型 ProSe 进行了更新，以模拟 4-NP、NP1EO 和 NP1EC 的归宿。根据浓度-流量关系，估算了塞纳河上游和瓦兹河（塞纳河的支流）的浓度。对于塞纳河阿瓦尔污水处理厂（SA-WWTP），其浓度被视为常数，并使用 11 次测量的中位数。根据姊妹篇的结果，推导出了 4-NP、NP1EO 和 NP1EC 在塞纳河中的生物降解动力学。纳什-苏特克里夫系数表明，该模型能够很好地模拟整个一年中 4-NP、NP1EC 和 NP1EO 的浓度。构建了 8 种情景，以预测全球变暖（流量减少）、人口增长（SA-WWTP 流量增加）和污水处理优化（改善废水处理质量）对 2050 年和 2100 年梅朗地区 4-NP、NP1EO 和 NP1EC 年浓度的影响。结果表明，全球变暖与人口增长可能会增加 4-NP、NP1EC 和 NP1EC 的浓度，尤其是在低流量条件下，而污水处理的优化是减少 WWTP 排放量以平衡全球变化的有效解决方案。
