University of Bristol, School of Veterinary Sciences, Langford House, Langford, North Somerset, BS40 5DU, UK.
Anim Health Res Rev. 2013 Dec;14(2):138-42. doi: 10.1017/S146625231300011X. Epub 2013 Oct 23.
Levels and seasonal patterns of parasite challenge to livestock are likely to be affected by climate change, through direct effects on life cycle stages outside the definitive host and through alterations in management that affect exposure and susceptibility. Net effects and options for adapting to them will depend very strongly on details of the system under consideration. This short paper is not a comprehensive review of climate change effects on parasites, but rather seeks to identify key areas in which detail is important and arguably under-recognized in supporting farmer adaptation. I argue that useful predictions should take fuller account of system-specific properties that influence disease emergence, and not just the effects of climatic variables on parasite biology. At the same time, excessive complexity is ill-suited to useful farm-level decision support. Dealing effectively with the 'devil of detail' in this area will depend on finding the right balance, and will determine our success in applying science to climate change adaptation by farmers.
寄生虫对牲畜的挑战水平和季节性模式可能会受到气候变化的影响，这是通过直接影响终宿主外的生活史阶段和通过影响暴露和易感性的管理改变来实现的。净效应和适应它们的选择将非常强烈地取决于所考虑系统的细节。本文并不是对气候变化对寄生虫影响的全面综述，而是试图确定在支持农民适应方面，细节很重要但可能被低估的关键领域。我认为，有用的预测应该更充分地考虑影响疾病发生的系统特定属性，而不仅仅是气候变量对寄生虫生物学的影响。与此同时，过度的复杂性不适合有用的农场层面决策支持。有效地处理这一领域的“细节魔鬼”将取决于找到正确的平衡，并将决定我们在农民适应气候变化方面应用科学的成功与否。
