Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Departamento de Transportes, Núcleo de Planeamento, Tráfego e Segurança, Av do Brasil 101, 1700-066 Lisboa, Portugal.
Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Departamento de Transportes, Núcleo de Planeamento, Tráfego e Segurança, Av do Brasil 101, 1700-066 Lisboa, Portugal.
Accid Anal Prev. 2014 Feb;63:121-32. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.10.034. Epub 2013 Nov 13.
Crash prediction models play a major role in highway safety analysis. These models can be used for various purposes, such as predicting the number of road crashes or establishing relationships between these crashes and different covariates. However, the appropriate choice for the functional form of these models is generally not discussed in research literature on road safety. In case of run-off-the-road crashes, empirical evidence and logical considerations lead to conclusion that the relationship between expected frequency and traffic flow is not monotonously increasing.
碰撞预测模型在公路安全分析中起着重要作用。这些模型可用于各种目的，例如预测道路碰撞的数量，或建立这些碰撞与不同协变量之间的关系。然而，在道路安全研究文献中，通常没有讨论这些模型的函数形式的适当选择。在驶出路外碰撞的情况下，经验证据和逻辑考虑得出的结论是，预期频率与交通流量之间的关系不是单调递增的。
