Sher Shlomi, McKenzie Craig R M
Department of Psychology, University of California.
Rady School of Management, University of California.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2014 Jun;143(3):1127-43. doi: 10.1037/a0035128. Epub 2013 Dec 23.
This article develops a rational analysis of an important class of apparent preference reversals-joint-separate reversals traditionally explained by the evaluability hypothesis. The "options-as-information" model considers a hypothetical rational actor with limited knowledge about the market distribution of a stimulus attribute. The actor's evaluations are formed via a 2-stage process-an inferential stage in which beliefs are updated on the basis of the sample of options received, followed by an assessment stage in which options are evaluated in light of these updated beliefs. This process generates joint-separate reversals in standard experimental designs. The normative model explains why the evaluability hypothesis works when it does, identifies boundary conditions for the hypothesis, and clarifies some common misconceptions about these effects. In particular, it implies that joint-separate reversals are not irrational; in fact, they are not preference reversals. However, in expanded designs where more than 2 options are jointly evaluated, the model predicts that genuine (and rational) preference reversals will sometimes emerge. Results of 3 experiments suggest an excellent fit between the rational actor model and the judgments of human actors in joint-separate experiments.
本文对一类重要的明显偏好逆转——传统上由可评估性假说解释的联合-单独逆转进行了合理分析。“选项即信息”模型考虑了一个对刺激属性的市场分布了解有限的假设理性行为者。行为者的评估通过两个阶段形成：一个推理阶段，在此阶段根据收到的选项样本更新信念；随后是一个评估阶段，在此阶段根据这些更新后的信念对选项进行评估。这一过程在标准实验设计中产生联合-单独逆转。该规范模型解释了可评估性假说在何种情况下起作用，确定了该假说的边界条件，并澄清了一些关于这些效应的常见误解。特别是，它意味着联合-单独逆转并非不理性；事实上，它们并非偏好逆转。然而，在联合评估超过两个选项的扩展设计中，该模型预测有时会出现真正的（且理性的）偏好逆转。三项实验的结果表明，理性行为者模型与联合-单独实验中人类行为者的判断高度契合。
