基于 Kvaal 等人开发的牙龄评估技术的西澳大利亚人群年龄评估标准
Age estimation standards for a Western Australian population using the dental age estimation technique developed by Kvaal et al.
机构信息
Centre for Forensic Science, The University of Western Australia, M420, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley, 6009 Western Australia, Australia.
Centre for Forensic Science, The University of Western Australia, M420, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley, 6009 Western Australia, Australia.
出版信息
Forensic Sci Int. 2014 Feb;235:104.e1-6. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2013.12.008. Epub 2013 Dec 16.
In the present global socio-political scenario, an increasing demand exists for age estimation in living persons, such as refugees and asylum seekers, who seldom have any documentation for proof of identity. Age estimation in the living poses significant challenges because the methods need to be non-invasive, accurate and ethically viable. Methods based on the analysis of the pulp chamber are recommended for age estimation in living adults. There is, however, a paucity of studies of this nature and population specific standards in Western Australia. The aim of the present study is therefore, to test the reliability and applicability of the method developed by Kvaal et al. (1995) for the purpose of developing age estimation standards for an adult Western Australian population. A total of 279 digital orthopantomograms (143 female; and 136 male) of Australian individuals were analysed. A subset of the total sample (50) was removed as a cross-validation (holdout) sample. Following the method described in Kvaal et al. (1995), length and width measurements of the tooth and pulp chamber were acquired in maxillary central and lateral incisors; second premolars, mandibular lateral incisors; canines and first premolars. Those measurements were then used to calculate a series of ratios (length and width), which were subsequently used to formulate age estimation regression models. The most accurate model based on a single tooth was for the maxillary central incisor (SEE ±9.367 years), followed by the maxillary second premolar (SEE ±9.525 years). Regression models based on the measurement of multiple teeth improved age prediction accuracy (SEE ±7.963 years). The regression models presented here have expected accuracy rates comparable (if not higher than) to established skeletal morphoscopic methods. This method, therefore, offers a statistically quantified methodological approach for forensic age estimation in Western Australian adults.
在当前的全球社会政治背景下,对于生活中的人(如难民和寻求庇护者)的年龄估计的需求日益增加,这些人很少有任何身份证明文件。对生活中的人进行年龄估计存在重大挑战,因为这些方法需要是非侵入性的、准确的和符合伦理的。建议使用基于牙髓腔分析的方法来估计生活中的成年人的年龄。然而,在澳大利亚西部,这种性质的研究和特定人群的标准都很少。因此,本研究的目的是测试 Kvaal 等人(1995 年)开发的方法的可靠性和适用性,目的是为澳大利亚西部成年人制定年龄估计标准。总共分析了 279 张数字化全景片(143 名女性;和 136 名男性)澳大利亚个体的。总样本的一部分(50 个)被移除作为交叉验证(保留)样本。按照 Kvaal 等人(1995 年)所述的方法,获取上颌中切牙和侧切牙;第二前磨牙、下颌侧切牙;尖牙和第一前磨牙的牙齿和牙髓腔的长度和宽度测量值。然后,使用这些测量值计算一系列比值(长度和宽度),随后用于制定年龄估计回归模型。基于单个牙齿的最准确模型是上颌中切牙(SEE ±9.367 年),其次是上颌第二前磨牙(SEE ±9.525 年)。基于多个牙齿测量的回归模型提高了年龄预测的准确性(SEE ±7.963 年)。这里提出的回归模型具有可预期的准确率,与已建立的骨骼形态学方法相当(如果不是更高的话)。因此,这种方法为澳大利亚西部成年人的法医年龄估计提供了一种统计量化的方法。