Miao Lu-Jun, Li Yan-Kuo, Li Jia, Xie Guang-Yong, Yuan Fang-Kai
College of Life Sciences, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 33022, China.
Dongwuxue Yanjiu. 2013 Dec;34(6):549-55.
This study analyzed the population dynamics of the Oriental white stork (Ciconia boyciana) wintering in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve (PLNNR) from 1985 to 2011, to see if there was any relationship with climate change. Testing of several climate variables-monthly average temperature, monthly average maximum and minimum temperature, as well as monthly precipitation-indicated that the population size of the Oriental white stork in the PLNNR was 1,340±178 ind., with significant linear increase and drastic annual fluctuation. Every single year, the population size only significantly correlated with the average minimum temperature of Nov. In theory, the low temperature of Nov. could drive individuals to choose other wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, instead of the Poyang Lake as wintering habitats. Meanwhile, temperatures in wintering areas also showed a carry-over effect on subsequent population size. Temperatures in primary stage and later stage of wintering period were significantly correlated with population size 2-9 years later, while the temperature of Oct. was highly significantly correlated with population size 2-5 years after. Temperatures of Feb. and Mar. in the later stage of wintering period were highly significantly correlated with population size of 8 and 3 years after, respectively. Moreover, the stepwise linear regression result showed that the average maximum temperature of Oct. and average maximum temperature of Mar. 2 years ago, as well as the average maximum temperature of Oct. and the average temperature of Mar. 4 years ago were significant predictor factors of the population size fluctuation of the Oriental white stork, which totally accounted for 79.2% of the population size change.
本研究分析了1985年至2011年在鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区（PLNNR）越冬的东方白鹳（Ciconia boyciana）的种群动态，以探究其与气候变化是否存在关联。对几个气候变量进行测试——月平均温度、月平均最高和最低温度以及月降水量——结果表明，PLNNR中东方白鹳的种群数量为1340±178只，呈显著线性增长且年际波动剧烈。每年，种群数量仅与11月的平均最低温度显著相关。理论上，11月的低温可能会促使个体选择长江中下游的其他湿地而非鄱阳湖作为越冬栖息地。同时，越冬地的温度对后续种群数量也有滞后效应。越冬期前期和后期的温度与2至9年后的种群数量显著相关，而10月的温度与2至5年后的种群数量高度显著相关。越冬后期2月和3月的温度分别与8年后和3年后的种群数量高度显著相关。此外，逐步线性回归结果表明，10月的平均最高温度和两年前3月的平均最高温度，以及10月的平均最高温度和四年前3月的平均温度是东方白鹳种群数量波动的显著预测因子，它们总共解释了种群数量变化的79.2%。
