The dynamics of trends in drug use in Australia.

Drug use tends to follow cycles. Monitoring may be used to establish the trends over time and to analyse their dynamics. An approach is described which establishes the stage of adoption or discontinuance of drug use in the community and a method for the prediction of future trends. Monitoring in New South Wales from 1971 to 1973 provided data which are analysed to show that alcohol was in the phase of majority adoption and tobacco had reached a plateau, but with the worrying anomaly that heavy use among young people continued to rise. Sedatives and analgesics had also reached a plateau stage of use. The data on marijuana are subject to more than one interpretation, but in any case point to a continuing rapid increase in use; predictions are made about future trends. Hallucinogens seemed to be in the phase of late adoption and stimulants to have entered a phase that is of particular interest, discontinuance. Narcotics seemed to be in the phase of late majority adoption.