估算全国报告病例中的急性病毒性肝炎感染。

Estimating acute viral hepatitis infections from nationally reported cases.

机构信息

At the time of the study, all authors were with the Division of Viral Hepatitis, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STDs and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.

出版信息

Am J Public Health. 2014 Mar;104(3):482-7. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2013.301601. Epub 2014 Jan 16.

DOI:10.2105/AJPH.2013.301601

PMID:24432918

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3953761/

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

Because only a fraction of patients with acute viral hepatitis A, B, and C are reported through national surveillance to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we estimated the true numbers.

METHODS

We applied a simple probabilistic model to estimate the fraction of patients with acute hepatitis A, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C who would have been symptomatic, would have sought health care tests, and would have been reported to health officials in 2011.

RESULTS

For hepatitis A, the frequencies of symptoms (85%), care seeking (88%), and reporting (69%) yielded an estimate of 2730 infections (2.0 infections per reported case). For hepatitis B, the frequencies of symptoms (39%), care seeking (88%), and reporting (45%) indicated 18 730 infections (6.5 infections per reported case). For hepatitis C, the frequency of symptoms among injection drug users (13%) and those infected otherwise (48%), proportion seeking care (88%), and percentage reported (53%) indicated 17 100 infections (12.3 infections per reported case).

CONCLUSIONS

These adjustment factors will allow state and local health authorities to estimate acute hepatitis infections locally and plan prevention activities accordingly.

摘要

目的

由于仅有一小部分急性甲型、乙型和丙型肝炎患者通过国家监测向疾病预防控制中心报告，因此我们对真实数字进行了估计。

方法

我们应用简单的概率模型，估计了 2011 年急性甲型肝炎、乙型肝炎和丙型肝炎患者中会出现症状、寻求医疗检查和向卫生官员报告的比例。

结果

甲型肝炎的症状（85%）、寻求医疗（88%）和报告（69%）频率，估计感染了 2730 例（每报告一例感染 2.0 例）。乙型肝炎的症状（39%）、寻求医疗（88%）和报告（45%）频率表明感染了 18730 例（每报告一例感染 6.5 例）。丙型肝炎的注射吸毒者（13%）和其他感染者（48%）出现症状的频率、寻求医疗的比例（88%）和报告的比例（53%）表明感染了 17100 例（每报告一例感染 12.3 例）。