Brand S, Schmucker U, Lob G, Haasper C, Juhra C, Hell W, Rieth P, Matthes G
Klinik für Unfallchirurgie mit Unfallforschung, Medizinische Hochschule Hannover, Deutschland.
AUC, Akademie Fortbildung DGU, München, Deutschland.
Zentralbl Chir. 2017 Apr;142(2):209-215. doi: 10.1055/s-0033-1350867. Epub 2014 Feb 4.
For the first time since 20 years, the number of road accident fatalities in 2011 increased on German roads compared to earlier periods. The presented paper submitted by the expert group for accident prevention investigates and discusses possible reasons for the observed increase in road traffic fatalities. Climate changes as well as changes in economic environment, and technological progress in car and passenger safety are identified as possible reasons for the observed increase. Mentioning the "Decade of Action for Road Safety" initiated by the UNO and coordinated by the WHO, the overall goal is a worldwide reduction of accident related road fatalities. But prognostic calculations predict an asymptotic approximation to a limit of road fatalities. To achieve a reduction by half until 2020 intense collaboration and disproportional expenditure are necessary. From the authors' point of view the current increase of traffic fatalities in Germany is rated as a snapshot rather than a turnaround.
自20年来,2011年德国道路交通事故死亡人数相较于早期有所增加。预防事故专家组提交的这篇论文调查并讨论了道路交通死亡人数增加的可能原因。气候变化、经济环境变化以及汽车和乘客安全方面的技术进步被确定为死亡人数增加的可能原因。文中提到了由联合国发起并由世界卫生组织协调的“道路安全行动十年”,其总体目标是在全球范围内减少与事故相关的道路死亡人数。但预测计算表明,道路死亡人数将渐近接近一个极限值。要在2020年前将死亡人数减半,就需要进行密切合作并投入不成比例的支出。在作者看来,德国目前交通死亡人数的增加被视为一种暂时现象,而非趋势转变。