Department of Preventive, Restorative and Pediatric Dentistry, School of Dental Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; DENTSPLY DeTrey, Konstanz, Germany.
Department of Preventive, Restorative and Pediatric Dentistry, School of Dental Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Dent Mater. 2014 Apr;30(4):442-8. doi: 10.1016/j.dental.2014.01.013. Epub 2014 Feb 9.
The aim of this study was to forecast trends in restorative dentistry over the next 20 years and to identify treatment goals and corresponding properties of restorative materials.
Using the Delphi method, a panel of 3 experts identified 8 key questions, which were sent to experts in restorative and preventive dentistry. In round 1 of this survey, 15 international experts devised a clearer semantic definition of the key questions and the completion of respective items for two additional rounds. In round 2, 125 experts from 35 countries rated the items developed in round 1 using a Likert scale. In round 3, the same 125 experts received the ratings of round 2 and were asked to agree or disagree to these ratings by re-voting on all key questions and items. A total of 105 experts re-voted and finally took part in the complete survey. Among the 8 key questions, two questions were selected for the present report: (Q1) "What will be the future role of restorative treatment?" and (Q6) "What will be the key qualities for clinical success of restorations?" For both questions and the respective items, the experts were asked to evaluate the importance and the feasibility for later calculation of the scientific value (i.e. the opportunity, where opportunity=importance+[importance-feasibility]).
The three items of highest importance for Q1 were "preservation of existing enamel and dentin tissue," "prevention of secondary caries," and "maintenance of the pulp vitality," and for Q6 they were "optimization of adhesion," "biocompatibility," and "minimizing technical sensitivity."
Bioactivity toward the pulp-dentin complex and prevention of secondary caries were the items generally rated as having the highest opportunity.
本研究旨在预测未来 20 年修复牙科的趋势，并确定治疗目标和修复材料的相应特性。
采用德尔菲法，一组 3 名专家确定了 8 个关键问题，并将这些问题发送给修复和预防牙科专家。在该调查的第一轮中，15 名国际专家对关键问题进行了更明确的语义定义，并为另外两轮完成了相应的项目。在第二轮中，来自 35 个国家的 125 名专家使用李克特量表对第一轮中制定的项目进行了评分。在第三轮中，相同的 125 名专家收到了第二轮的评分，并被要求通过对所有关键问题和项目重新投票来同意或不同意这些评分。共有 105 名专家重新投票，最终完成了整个调查。在 8 个关键问题中，选择了两个问题（Q1）“修复治疗的未来作用是什么？”和（Q6）“修复临床成功的关键质量是什么？”对于这两个问题和各自的项目，专家们被要求评估重要性和以后计算科学价值的可行性（即机会，机会=重要性+[重要性-可行性]）。
对于 Q1，最重要的三个项目是“保留现有的牙釉质和牙本质组织”、“预防继发龋”和“保持牙髓活力”，对于 Q6，它们是“优化粘结”、“生物相容性”和“最小化技术敏感性”。
对牙髓-牙本质复合体的生物活性和预防继发龋是普遍被认为机会最高的项目。
