Shuang Qing, Zhang Mingyuan, Yuan Yongbo
Department of Construction Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, Liaoning, China.
PLoS One. 2014 Feb 13;9(2):e88445. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0088445. eCollection 2014.
As a mean of supplying water, Water distribution system (WDS) is one of the most important complex infrastructures. The stability and reliability are critical for urban activities. WDSs can be characterized by networks of multiple nodes (e.g. reservoirs and junctions) and interconnected by physical links (e.g. pipes). Instead of analyzing highest failure rate or highest betweenness, reliability of WDS is evaluated by introducing hydraulic analysis and cascading failures (conductive failure pattern) from complex network. The crucial pipes are identified eventually. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an example. The results show that the demand multiplier has a great influence on the peak of reliability and the persistent time of the cascading failures in its propagation in WDS. The time period when the system has the highest reliability is when the demand multiplier is less than 1. There is a threshold of tolerance parameter exists. When the tolerance parameter is less than the threshold, the time period with the highest system reliability does not meet minimum value of demand multiplier. The results indicate that the system reliability should be evaluated with the properties of WDS and the characteristics of cascading failures, so as to improve its ability of resisting disasters.
作为一种供水方式，配水系统（WDS）是最重要的复杂基础设施之一。其稳定性和可靠性对城市活动至关重要。配水系统可由多个节点（如水库和节点）网络来表征，并通过物理链路（如管道）相互连接。与分析最高故障率或最高介数不同，配水系统的可靠性是通过引入水力分析和复杂网络中的级联故障（传导故障模式）来评估的。最终确定关键管道。通过一个例子说明了所提出的方法。结果表明，需求乘数对配水系统中可靠性峰值以及级联故障传播中的持续时间有很大影响。系统可靠性最高的时间段是需求乘数小于1时。存在一个容差参数阈值。当容差参数小于该阈值时，系统可靠性最高的时间段不满足需求乘数的最小值。结果表明，应结合配水系统的特性和级联故障的特征来评估系统可靠性，以提高其抗灾能力。
