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一种需求模式估计方法:蒙特卡罗模拟与分形分析。

An Approach to Demand Pattern Estimation: Monte Carlo Simulation and Fractal Analysis.

作者信息

Mohapatra Sanjeeb, Sargaonkar Aabha

出版信息

J Environ Sci Eng. 2014 Jan;56(1):65-72.

PMID:26445758
Abstract

Day to day activities of urban population in normal routine conditions are largely affected by the operation of the urban water supply system. In addition, the working hours, pattern of shift duties and living standards in a society decide the quantum of water use at different times in a day. This demand pattern is an important parameter for water supply agencies in order to ensure safe and reliable water supply. In the present study, short-term (hourly and daily) water demand is estimated for drinking as well as various other household activities. BIS standard of 135 lpcd and socioeconomic survey data are considered as the basis to derive a time series distribution of water consumption for different activities. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is performed to generate the random distribution of consumption pattern. The hourly water consumption for various activities shows persistent behavior with Hurst coefficient in the range of 0.592 to 0.837 and the peak flow factor of the estimated demand pattern is 5. This pattern is useful as a basis for design of service reservoir as well as pump scheduling. It is also an important parameter in the model study in performance assessment of water distribution system (WDS).

摘要

城市人口在正常日常情况下的日常活动在很大程度上受到城市供水系统运行的影响。此外,一个社会的工作时间、轮班模式和生活水平决定了一天中不同时间的用水量。这种需求模式对于供水机构确保安全可靠的供水来说是一个重要参数。在本研究中,估算了用于饮用以及各种其他家庭活动的短期(每小时和每日)需水量。将135升/人·日的印度标准局(BIS)标准和社会经济调查数据作为得出不同活动用水时间序列分布的基础。进行蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)以生成消费模式的随机分布。各项活动的每小时用水量呈现出持续性,赫斯特系数在0.592至0.837范围内,且估计需求模式的峰值流量系数为5。这种模式可作为设计服务水库以及水泵调度的基础。它也是配水系统(WDS)性能评估模型研究中的一个重要参数。

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