预测终末期肾病初发透析患者的首年死亡率——UREA5研究

Predicting first-year mortality in incident dialysis patients with end-stage renal disease - the UREA5 study.

作者信息

Chua Horng-Ruey, Lau Titus, Luo Nan, Ma Valerie, Teo Boon-Wee, Haroon Sabrina, Choy Kwan-Loong, Lim Yoke-Ching, Chng Wei-Qiang, Ong Li-Zhen, Wong Tsz-Yeung, Lee Evan J

机构信息

Division of Nephrology, University Medicine Cluster, Singapore, Singapore.

出版信息

Blood Purif. 2014;37(2):85-92. doi: 10.1159/000357640. Epub 2014 Feb 26.

Abstract

We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for first-year mortality (FYM) in incident dialysis patients with end-stage renal disease. We retrospectively examined patient comorbidities and biochemistry, prior to dialysis initiation, using a single-center, prospectively maintained database from 2005-2010, and analyzed these variables in relation to FYM. A total of 983 patients were studied. 22% had left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <45%. FYM was 17%, and independent predictors included URate <500 or >600 μmol/l, LVEF <45% (higher odds ratio if <30%), Age >70 years, Arteriopathies (cerebrovascular and/or peripheral-vascular diseases), serum Albumin <30 g/l, and Alkaline phosphatase >80 U/l (p < 0.05, C-statistic 0.74), and these constitute the acronym UREA5. Using linear modeling, risk weightage/integer of 3 was assigned to LVEF <30%, 2 to age >70 years, and 1 to each remaining variable. Cumulative UREA5 scores of ≤ 1, 2, 3, 4, and ≥ 5 were associated with FYM of 6, 8, 22, 31, and 46%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Increasing UREA5 scores were strongly associated with stepwise worsening of FYM after dialysis initiation.

摘要

我们旨在为终末期肾病的初发透析患者建立一个预测第一年死亡率(FYM)的风险模型。我们使用一个单中心前瞻性维护的2005年至2010年数据库,回顾性检查了透析开始前患者的合并症和生化指标,并分析了这些变量与FYM的关系。共研究了983例患者。22%的患者左心室射血分数(LVEF)<45%。FYM为17%,独立预测因素包括尿酸(URate)<500或>600 μmol/l、LVEF<45%(如果<30%,比值比更高)、年龄>70岁、动脉病变(脑血管和/或外周血管疾病)、血清白蛋白<30 g/l以及碱性磷酸酶>80 U/l(p<0.05,C统计量0.74),这些构成了首字母缩写UREA5。使用线性模型,将风险权重/整数3分配给LVEF<30%,2分配给年龄>70岁,其余每个变量分配1。UREA5累积得分≤1、2、3、4和≥5分别与FYM为6%、8%、22%、31%和46%相关(p<0.0001)。透析开始后,UREA5得分增加与FYM逐步恶化密切相关。

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