Shadish William R
School of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, University of California, Merced, 5200 North Lake Rd, Merced CA 95343, United States.
J Sch Psychol. 2014 Apr;52(2):109-22. doi: 10.1016/j.jsp.2013.11.009. Epub 2014 Jan 31.
The last 10 years have seen great progress in the analysis and meta-analysis of single-case designs (SCDs). This special issue includes five articles that provide an overview of current work on that topic, including standardized mean difference statistics, multilevel models, Bayesian statistics, and generalized additive models. Each article analyzes a common example across articles and presents syntax or macros for how to do them. These articles are followed by commentaries from single-case design researchers and journal editors. This introduction briefly describes each article and then discusses several issues that must be addressed before we can know what analyses will eventually be best to use in SCD research. These issues include modeling trend, modeling error covariances, computing standardized effect size estimates, assessing statistical power, incorporating more accurate models of outcome distributions, exploring whether Bayesian statistics can improve estimation given the small samples common in SCDs, and the need for annotated syntax and graphical user interfaces that make complex statistics accessible to SCD researchers. The article then discusses reasons why SCD researchers are likely to incorporate statistical analyses into their research more often in the future, including changing expectations and contingencies regarding SCD research from outside SCD communities, changes and diversity within SCD communities, corrections of erroneous beliefs about the relationship between SCD research and statistics, and demonstrations of how statistics can help SCD researchers better meet their goals.
在过去十年中,单病例设计(SCD)的分析和元分析取得了巨大进展。本期特刊包含五篇文章,对该主题的当前研究工作进行了概述,内容涵盖标准化均值差异统计、多层次模型、贝叶斯统计和广义相加模型。每篇文章都分析了各篇文章中的一个常见示例,并给出了如何进行这些分析的语法或宏。这些文章之后是单病例设计研究人员和期刊编辑的评论。本引言简要介绍了每篇文章,然后讨论了在我们能够确定最终在SCD研究中最适合使用何种分析方法之前必须解决的几个问题。这些问题包括趋势建模、误差协方差建模、计算标准化效应量估计值、评估统计功效、纳入更准确的结果分布模型、探讨鉴于SCD中常见的小样本,贝叶斯统计是否能改善估计,以及需要有注释的语法和图形用户界面以使SCD研究人员能够使用复杂的统计方法。然后,本文讨论了SCD研究人员未来可能更频繁地将统计分析纳入其研究的原因,包括SCD领域之外对SCD研究的期望和意外情况的变化、SCD领域内部的变化和多样性、对SCD研究与统计之间关系的错误观念的纠正,以及展示统计如何帮助SCD研究人员更好地实现其目标。