Department of Radiology, Research Institute of Radiological Science, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Department of Research Affairs, Biostatistics Collaboration Unit, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Surgery. 2014 Jun;155(6):1006-13. doi: 10.1016/j.surg.2013.12.035. Epub 2014 Jan 3.
BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that a nomogram constructed of clinical and imaging variables could be applied to predicting the risk of malignancy in thyroid nodules diagnosed as atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesions of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS) on ultrasonographic fine-needle aspiration (US-FNA). METHODS: This retrospectively designed study included 393 thyroid nodules in 392 patients (mean age, 49 ± 12 years), which were diagnosed as AUS/FLUS with US-FNA during the study period. Medical records, US images, and cytopathology results were reviewed and analyzed. The 393 thyroid nodules were divided into training and validation sets. Logistic regression analysis was performed to predict the probability of malignancy, and nomograms were constructed using the training set and subsequently applied to the validation set. RESULTS: Three sets of nomograms were constructed separately using clinical factors and (1) individual US features; (2) final assessment of US; and (3) the number of suspicious US features. All 3 sets of nomograms built were proven accurate and discriminative, these nomograms had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.817 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.757-0.877) when using clinical factors and individual US features, an AUC of 0.769 (95% CI, 0.705-0.833) wen using final assessment, and an AUC of 0.779 (95% CI, 0.718-0.840) when using the number of suspicious US features. The AUC of each validation set was 0.754 (95% CI, 0.659-0.850), 0.757 (95% CI, 0.661-0.853), and 0.721 (95% CI, 0.621-0.820), respectively. CONCLUSION: Nomograms constructed in our study using US can be utilized in predicting the probability of malignancy in thyroid nodules diagnosed as AUS/FLUS on US-FNA, and may help in selecting patients who are at high risk for malignancy.
背景:我们假设,通过构建一个包含临床和影像学变量的列线图,可以预测在超声细针抽吸(US-FNA)检查中诊断为意义不明的非典型性甲状腺结节/滤泡性病变(AUS/FLUS)的甲状腺结节发生恶性肿瘤的风险。
方法:本研究采用回顾性设计,纳入了 392 例患者的 393 个甲状腺结节(平均年龄 49±12 岁),这些患者在研究期间因 US-FNA 检查诊断为 AUS/FLUS。回顾并分析了这些患者的病历、超声图像和细胞病理学结果。393 个甲状腺结节被分为训练集和验证集。采用 logistic 回归分析预测恶性肿瘤的概率,并使用训练集构建列线图,然后将其应用于验证集。
结果:分别使用临床因素和(1)单个 US 特征、(2)US 最终评估、(3)可疑 US 特征数量构建了 3 套列线图。所构建的 3 套列线图均具有良好的准确性和区分度,使用临床因素和单个 US 特征时,其受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)下面积(AUC)为 0.817(95%置信区间[CI],0.757-0.877),使用 US 最终评估时,AUC 为 0.769(95%CI,0.705-0.833),使用可疑 US 特征数量时,AUC 为 0.779(95%CI,0.718-0.840)。验证集的 AUC 分别为 0.754(95%CI,0.659-0.850)、0.757(95%CI,0.661-0.853)和 0.721(95%CI,0.621-0.820)。
结论:本研究中使用 US 构建的列线图可用于预测在 US-FNA 检查中诊断为 AUS/FLUS 的甲状腺结节发生恶性肿瘤的概率,有助于选择恶性肿瘤风险较高的患者。
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2024
Arch Endocrinol Metab. 2021-11-3