Ecol Appl. 2014 Jan;24(1):121-41. doi: 10.1890/12-1683.1.
Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000-2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: Ring-necked Duck (Aythya collaris) decreased, and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997-1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: Fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements, or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest-harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over timescales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all 84 waterbird species breeding on the Ontario Boreal Shield, however, suggested that up to 30 species may instead have altered (short-term) distribution dynamics due to forestry practices. Hence, natural disturbances are critical components of the ecology of the boreal forest and forest practices which aim to approximate them may succeed in allowing the maintenance of the associated species, but improved monitoring and modeling of large-scale boreal forest bird distribution dynamics will be necessary to resolve existing uncertainties, especially on less-common species.
了解景观变化和环境变异性对生态过程的影响对于评估资源管理政策（如模拟自然森林干扰）非常重要。我们使用贝叶斯多模型推理框架中的层次模型分析了检测/未检测数据的时间序列，将物种分布的动态分解为对环境变异性、栖息地条件的空间变化以及种群动态和种间相互作用的响应，同时纠正观测误差和采样方案的变化。我们使用来自加拿大安大略省北方森林生态区的两项不同繁殖鸟类调查的数据，对 14 种水鸟（广义上包括湿地和河岸物种）的分布动态进行建模。物种占有率（2000-2006 年）的时间变化主要由气候变异性驱动。只有两种物种的分布表现出一致的时间趋势：环颈鸭（Aythya collaris）减少，红翅黑鹂（Agelaius phoeniceus）增加。随着时间的推移，模型对独立数据的预测能力良好（1997-1999 年）。物种占有率的空间变化与特定土地覆盖类型和栖息地干扰的分布密切相关：火灾和森林采伐对占有率的影响大于道路、定居点或矿山。生物气候和栖息地异质性指数以及地理坐标对大多数物种的分布几乎没有影响。估计的栖息地适宜性指数对空间独立数据具有良好的预测能力（哈德逊湾低地生态区）。此外，我们还检测到种间相互作用的影响。14 种物种中有 13 种对火灾和森林采伐的反应相似；因此，安大略省的森林采伐实践在 10-20 年的时间尺度上似乎通常模仿了火灾对水鸟的影响。然而，将其推广到安大略省北方森林中繁殖的所有 84 种水鸟，则表明由于林业实践，多达 30 种水鸟的分布动态可能已经发生改变（短期）。因此，自然干扰是北方森林生态系统的关键组成部分，旨在模拟这些干扰的森林实践可能会成功地维持相关物种，但需要对大规模北方森林鸟类分布动态进行更好的监测和建模，以解决现有不确定性，特别是对较不常见的物种。
