Ayre Kimberley Kolb, Caldwell Colleen A, Stinson Jonah, Landis Wayne G
Institute of Environmental Toxicology, Huxley College of the Environment, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA, USA.
Risk Anal. 2014 Sep;34(9):1589-605. doi: 10.1111/risa.12189. Epub 2014 Mar 24.
Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.
脑粘体虫（Myxobolus cerebralis）是引起旋转病的寄生虫，其引入和传播导致了美国西部山间野生鳟鱼种群的崩溃。令人担忧的是，这种疾病可能对本土割喉鳟的保护和恢复产生风险。我们采用贝叶斯信念网络来评估美国西南部科罗拉多河割喉鳟（Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus）和格兰德河割喉鳟（Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis）在其当前分布范围内感染旋转病的概率。中间寡毛类蠕虫宿主颤蚓（Tubifex tubifex）的可用栖息地（由坡度和海拔定义）对感染可能性影响最大，但溪流屏障的流行程度也影响了风险结果。感染科罗拉多河割喉鳟可能性最高的管理区域位于其分布范围的东部，不过南部圣胡安子流域的种群感染概率最高。格兰德河割喉鳟感染的可能性相对较低，最南端佩科斯管理区域的种群预计风险最大。贝叶斯风险评估模型预测了旋转病从其主要传播媒介鱼类移动感染的可能性，并表明屏障可能有效地降低本土鳟鱼种群接触风险。数据缺口，尤其是关于产卵位置的缺口，凸显了制定监测计划以支持未来对割喉鳟亚种的风险评估和适应性管理的重要性。
