Hou Lan-Gong, Zou Song-Bing, Xiao Hong-Lang, Yang Yong-Gang
Geographic Information and Tourism Department, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou, China.
Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology and River Basin Science, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 260 West Donggang Road, Lanzhou, China.
Springerplus. 2013 Dec 11;2(Suppl 1):S4. doi: 10.1186/2193-1801-2-S1-S4. eCollection 2013.
The standardized FAO56 Penman-Monteith model, which has been the most reasonable method in both humid and arid climatic conditions, provides reference evapotranspiration (ETo) estimates for planning and efficient use of agricultural water resources. And sensitivity analysis is important in understanding the relative importance of climatic variables to the variation of reference evapotranspiration. In this study, a non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict responses of ETo to perturbations of four climatic variables in the Ejina oasis northwest China. A 20-year historical dataset of daily air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and daily sunshine duration in the Ejina oasis was used in the analysis. Results have shown that daily sensitivity coefficients exhibited large fluctuations during the growing season, and shortwave radiation was the most sensitive variable in general for the Ejina oasis, followed by air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. According to this study, the response of ETo can be preferably predicted under perturbation of air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and shortwave radiation by their sensitivity coefficients.
标准化的粮农组织56彭曼-蒙特斯模型在湿润和干旱气候条件下都是最合理的方法，可为农业水资源规划和高效利用提供参考蒸散量（ETo）估算值。敏感性分析对于理解气候变量对参考蒸散量变化的相对重要性至关重要。在本研究中，采用无量纲相对敏感性系数来预测中国西北额济纳绿洲参考蒸散量对四个气候变量扰动的响应。分析中使用了额济纳绿洲20年的日气温、风速、相对湿度和日照时长历史数据集。结果表明，生长季中日敏感性系数波动较大，总体而言，短波辐射是额济纳绿洲最敏感的变量，其次是气温、风速和相对湿度。根据本研究，通过敏感性系数可以较好地预测参考蒸散量在气温、风速、相对湿度和短波辐射扰动下的响应。
