Qubbaj Murad R, Shutters Shade T, Muneepeerakul Rachata
School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA,
Bull Math Biol. 2015 Feb;77(2):390-407. doi: 10.1007/s11538-014-9949-3. Epub 2014 Apr 11.
Many urban phenomena exhibit remarkable regularity in the form of nonlinear scaling behaviors, but their implications on a system of networked cities has never been investigated. Such knowledge is crucial for our ability to harness the complexity of urban processes to further sustainability science. In this paper, we develop a dynamical modeling framework that embeds population-resource dynamics-a generalized Lotka-Volterra system with modifications to incorporate the urban scaling behaviors-in complex networks in which cities may be linked to the resources of other cities and people may migrate in pursuit of higher welfare. We find that isolated cities (i.e., no migration) are susceptible to collapse if they do not have access to adequate resources. Links to other cities may help cities that would otherwise collapse due to insufficient resources. The effects of inter-city links, however, can vary due to the interplay between the nonlinear scaling behaviors and network structure. The long-term population level of a city is, in many settings, largely a function of the city's access to resources over which the city has little or no competition. Nonetheless, careful investigation of dynamics is required to gain mechanistic understanding of a particular city-resource network because cities and resources may collapse and the scaling behaviors may influence the effects of inter-city links, thereby distorting what topological metrics really measure.
许多城市现象呈现出显著的非线性缩放行为形式的规律性,但其对网络化城市系统的影响从未得到研究。这类知识对于我们驾驭城市过程的复杂性以推动可持续性科学发展的能力至关重要。在本文中,我们开发了一个动态建模框架,该框架将人口 - 资源动态(一种经过修改以纳入城市缩放行为的广义洛特卡 - 沃尔泰拉系统)嵌入复杂网络中,在这个网络中城市可能与其他城市的资源相连接,并且人们可能为追求更高福利而迁移。我们发现,孤立的城市(即无迁移情况)如果无法获得充足资源就容易崩溃。与其他城市的连接可能会帮助那些否则会因资源不足而崩溃的城市。然而,由于非线性缩放行为与网络结构之间的相互作用,城市间连接的影响可能会有所不同。在许多情况下,一个城市的长期人口水平在很大程度上取决于该城市获取资源的情况,而该城市对这些资源几乎没有或没有竞争。尽管如此,需要对动态进行仔细研究,以获得对特定城市 - 资源网络的机制理解,因为城市和资源可能会崩溃,并且缩放行为可能会影响城市间连接的效果,从而扭曲拓扑指标实际衡量的内容。