Archer Mel
J Forensic Sci. 2014 Mar;59(2):404-12. doi: 10.1111/1556-4029.12345.
Minimum postmortem interval (mPMI) can be estimated with preceding mean ambient temperature models that predict carrion taxon pre-appearance interval. But accuracy has not been compared with using summary statistics (mean ± SD of taxon arrival/departure day, range, 95% CI). This study collected succession data from ten experimental and five control (infrequently sampled) pig carcasses over two summers (n = 2 experimental, n = 1 control per placement date). Linear and exponential preceding mean ambient temperature models for appearance and departure times were constructed for 17 taxa/developmental stages. There was minimal difference in linear or exponential model success, although arrival models were more often significant: 65% of linear arrival (r2 = 0.09–0.79) and exponential arrival models (r2 = 0.05–81.0) were significant, and 35% of linear departure (r2 = 0.0–0.71) and exponential departure models (r2 = 0.0–0.72) were significant. Performance of models and summary statistics for estimating mPMI was compared in two forensic cases. Only summary statistics produced accurate mPMI estimates.
最小死后间隔时间（mPMI）可以通过预测腐肉分类群出现前间隔时间的先前平均环境温度模型来估计。但尚未将其准确性与使用汇总统计数据（分类群到达/离开日的平均值±标准差、范围、95%置信区间）进行比较。本研究在两个夏天收集了来自10个实验猪尸体和5个对照（采样不频繁）猪尸体的演替数据（每个放置日期n = 2个实验猪尸体，n = 1个对照猪尸体）。针对17个分类群/发育阶段构建了出现和离开时间的线性和指数先前平均环境温度模型。线性或指数模型的成功率差异极小，尽管到达模型更常具有显著性：65%的线性到达模型（r2 = 0.09 - 0.79）和指数到达模型（r2 = 0.05 - 81.0）具有显著性，35%的线性离开模型（r2 = 0.0 - 0.71）和指数离开模型（r2 = 0.0 - 0.72）具有显著性。在两个法医案例中比较了模型和汇总统计数据在估计mPMI方面的表现。只有汇总统计数据产生了准确的mPMI估计值。
