Keegan Lindsay, Dushoff Jonathan
Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada,
Bull Math Biol. 2014 May;76(5):1143-54. doi: 10.1007/s11538-014-9950-x. Epub 2014 Apr 23.
The basic reproductive number, R0, provides a foundation for evaluating how various factors affect the incidence of infectious diseases. Recently, it has been suggested that, particularly for vector-transmitted diseases, R0 should be modified to account for the effects of finite host population within a single disease transmission generation. Here, we use a transmission factor approach to calculate such "finite-population reproductive numbers," under the assumption of homogeneous mixing, for both vector-borne and directly transmitted diseases. In the case of vector-borne diseases, we estimate finite-population reproductive numbers for both host-to-host and vector-to-vector generations, assuming that the vector population is effectively infinite. We find simple, interpretable formulas for all three of these quantities. In the direct case, we find that finite-population reproductive numbers diverge from R0 before R0 reaches half of the population size. In the vector-transmitted case, we find that the host-to-host number diverges at even lower values of R0, while the vector-to-vector number diverges very little over realistic parameter ranges.
基本再生数R0为评估各种因素如何影响传染病发病率提供了一个基础。最近有人提出,特别是对于媒介传播疾病,R0应进行修正,以考虑单一疾病传播代内有限宿主种群的影响。在此,我们采用传播因子方法,在均匀混合的假设下,针对媒介传播疾病和直接传播疾病计算此类“有限种群再生数”。对于媒介传播疾病,我们假设媒介种群实际上是无限的,估计宿主到宿主和媒介到媒介代的有限种群再生数。我们为所有这三个量找到了简单、可解释的公式。在直接传播的情况下,我们发现有限种群再生数在R0达到种群大小的一半之前就与R0产生偏差。在媒介传播的情况下,我们发现宿主到宿主的再生数在R0更低的值时就产生偏差,而在实际参数范围内,媒介到媒介的再生数偏差很小。