Woolhouse M E, Dye C, Etard J F, Smith T, Charlwood J D, Garnett G P, Hagan P, Hii J L, Ndhlovu P D, Quinnell R J, Watts C H, Chandiwana S K, Anderson R M
Wellcome Trust Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1997 Jan 7;94(1):338-42. doi: 10.1073/pnas.94.1.338.
From an analysis of the distributions of measures of transmission rates among hosts, we identify an empirical relationship suggesting that, typically, 20% of the host population contributes at least 80% of the net transmission potential, as measured by the basic reproduction number, R0. This is an example of a statistical pattern known as the 20/80 rule. The rule applies to a variety of disease systems, including vector-borne parasites and sexually transmitted pathogens. The rule implies that control programs targeted at the "core" 20% group are potentially highly effective and, conversely, that programs that fail to reach all of this group will be much less effective than expected in reducing levels of infection in the population as a whole.
通过对宿主间传播率测量值分布的分析，我们确定了一种经验关系，表明通常20%的宿主群体贡献了至少80%的净传播潜力，这一潜力以基本再生数R0衡量。这是一种被称为20/80法则的统计模式的实例。该法则适用于多种疾病系统，包括媒介传播寄生虫和性传播病原体。该法则意味着针对“核心”20%群体的控制项目可能极具成效，反之，未能覆盖该群体所有成员的项目在降低总体人群感染水平方面的效果将远低于预期。
