Grimvall Anders, von Brömssen Claudia, Lindström Göran
Swedish Institute for the Marine Environment, PO Box 260, 405 30, Göteborg, Sweden,
Environ Monit Assess. 2014 Aug;186(8):5135-52. doi: 10.1007/s10661-014-3765-y. Epub 2014 Apr 24.
Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.
河流氮磷负荷的过程基建模进展为解释水质数据的时间序列创造了新的可能性。我们研究了如何利用具有恒定人为强迫的模型运行来估计和滤除观测数据中受天气驱动的变化，从而关注此类数据的其他特征。对瑞典45条河流出口处实测和模拟的养分浓度进行评估，得出了关于总氮的有前景的结果。特别是，对观测数据和流域模型S-HYPE输出结果的联合分析进一步证明，氮含量的下降趋势是由于农业中的减排措施。对模拟和观测的总磷浓度进行评估，发现水样采集或化学分析存在相当大的偏差，同时也指出了模型输出的弱点。我们的研究结果共同强调了环境建模与监测之间更高效双向沟通的必要性。
