Balaev Mikhail
Department of Sociology, Washington State University, 2710 Crimson Way, Richland, WA 99354, United States.
Soc Sci Res. 2014 Jul;46:169-83. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2014.03.004. Epub 2014 Mar 24.
The author examines how time delayed effects of economic development, education, and gender equality influence political democracy. Literature review shows inadequate understanding of lagged effects, which raises methodological and theoretical issues with the current quantitative studies of democracy. Using country-years as a unit of analysis, the author estimates a series of OLS PCSE models for each predictor with a systematic analysis of the distributions of the lagged effects. The second set of multiple OLS PCSE regressions are estimated including all three independent variables. The results show that economic development, education, and gender have three unique trajectories of the time-delayed effects: Economic development has long-term effects, education produces continuous effects regardless of the timing, and gender equality has the most prominent immediate and short term effects. The results call for the reassessment of model specifications and theoretical setups in the quantitative studies of democracy.
作者研究了经济发展、教育和性别平等的时间延迟效应如何影响政治民主。文献综述表明，对滞后效应的理解不足，这给当前民主的定量研究带来了方法和理论问题。以国家年份为分析单位，作者针对每个预测变量估计了一系列OLS PCSE模型，并对滞后效应的分布进行了系统分析。估计了第二组多元OLS PCSE回归，包括所有三个自变量。结果表明，经济发展、教育和性别具有三种独特的时间延迟效应轨迹：经济发展具有长期效应，教育无论时间如何都会产生持续效应，性别平等具有最显著的即时和短期效应。这些结果呼吁在民主的定量研究中重新评估模型规格和理论设置。
