Brym Robert, Godbout Melissa, Hoffbauer Andreas, Menard Gabe, Zhang Tony Huiquan
Department of Sociology, University of Toronto.
Br J Sociol. 2014 Jun;65(2):266-92. doi: 10.1111/1468-4446.12080. Epub 2014 May 5.
This paper uses Gallup poll data to assess two narratives that have crystallized around the 2011 Egyptian uprising: (1) New electronic communications media constituted an important and independent cause of the protests in so far as they enhanced the capacity of demonstrators to extend protest networks, express outrage, organize events, and warn comrades of real-time threats. (2) Net of other factors, new electronic communications media played a relatively minor role in the uprising because they are low-cost, low-risk means of involvement that attract many sympathetic onlookers who are not prepared to engage in high-risk activism. Examining the independent effects of a host of factors associated with high-risk movement activism, the paper concludes that using some new electronic communications media was associated with being a demonstrator. However, grievances, structural availability, and network connections were more important than was the use of new electronic communications media in distinguishing demonstrators from sympathetic onlookers. Thus, although both narratives have some validity, they must both be qualified.
本文运用盖洛普民意调查数据，评估围绕2011年埃及起义形成的两种说法：（1）新的电子通信媒体是抗议活动的一个重要且独立的起因，因为它们增强了示威者扩展抗议网络、表达愤怒、组织活动以及向同志警告实时威胁的能力。（2）排除其他因素，新的电子通信媒体在起义中发挥的作用相对较小，因为它们是低成本、低风险的参与方式，吸引了许多不准备参与高风险激进主义行动的同情旁观者。通过考察与高风险运动激进主义相关的一系列因素的独立影响，本文得出结论，使用一些新的电子通信媒体与成为示威者有关。然而，在区分示威者和同情旁观者方面，不满情绪、结构可得性和网络联系比使用新的电子通信媒体更为重要。因此，尽管这两种说法都有一定合理性，但都必须加以限定。
