School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States.
Environ Res. 2014 Jul;132:334-41. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2014.04.021. Epub 2014 May 14.
The effect of temperature on childhood pneumonia in subtropical regions is largely unknown so far. This study examined the impact of temperature on childhood pneumonia in Brisbane, Australia. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the main effect of temperature on emergency department visits (EDVs) for childhood pneumonia in Brisbane from 2001 to 2010. The model residuals were checked to identify added effects due to heat waves or cold spells. Both high and low temperatures were associated with an increase in EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Children aged 2-5 years, and female children were particularly vulnerable to the impacts of heat and cold, and Indigenous children were sensitive to heat. Heat waves and cold spells had significant added effects on childhood pneumonia, and the magnitude of these effects increased with intensity and duration. There were changes over time in both the main and added effects of temperature on childhood pneumonia. Children, especially those female and Indigenous, should be particularly protected from extreme temperatures. Future development of early warning systems should take the change over time in the impact of temperature on children's health into account.
目前，温度对亚热带地区儿童肺炎的影响还知之甚少。本研究考察了温度对澳大利亚布里斯班儿童肺炎的影响。采用拟泊松广义线性模型结合分布滞后非线性模型，定量分析了 2001 年至 2010 年布里斯班儿童肺炎急诊就诊（EDV）中温度的主要影响。检查模型残差以确定因热浪或寒冷天气而产生的附加影响。高温和低温都与儿童肺炎 EDV 的增加有关。2-5 岁的儿童和女童特别容易受到热和冷的影响，而土著儿童对热敏感。热浪和寒冷天气对儿童肺炎有显著的附加影响，这些影响的幅度随着强度和持续时间的增加而增加。儿童肺炎的温度主效应和附加效应随时间都发生了变化。儿童，特别是女童和土著儿童，应特别注意避免极端温度。未来的预警系统的发展应考虑到温度对儿童健康影响随时间的变化。
