Role of hormones in cancer prevention.

Risk for breast cancer can be easily and rapidly assessed using validated, quantitative models. Multiple randomized studies show that the selective estrogen response modifiers (SERMs) tamoxifen and raloxifene can safely reduce the risk of invasive breast cancer in both pre- and postmenopausal women. Treatment resulted in a 38% reduction in breast cancer incidence, and 42 women would need to be treated to prevent one breast cancer event in the first 10 years of follow-up. Reduction was larger in the first 5 years of follow-up than in years 5 to 10, but no studies treated patients for longer than 5 years. Thromboembolic events were significantly increased with all SERMs, whereas vertebral fractures were reduced. Tamoxifen provides net benefit to all premenopausal women who are at increased risk, whereas raloxifene reduces risk nearly as much in postmenopausal women and offers increased safety. Both tamoxifen and raloxifene reduce the incidence of in situ cancers. Lasofoxifene reduced the risk of breast cancer by 79% in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. The MAP3 trial showed a 65% reduction in the annual incidence of invasive breast cancer in postmenopausal women who were at moderately increased risk for breast cancer who took the aromatase inhibitor exemestane. The IBIS-II trial showed a 53% reduction in the risk of invasive breast cancer in postmenopausal women aged 40 to 70 who took the aromatase inhibitor anastrozole. Of the 50 million white women in the United States aged 35 to 79, 2.4 million would have a positive benefit/risk index for chemoprevention.