Cherpillod P, Thomas Y, Schibler M, Kaiser L
Rev Med Suisse. 2014 May 7;10(429):1004-7.
Emerging viruses previously unknown or partially known that infect repeatedly the human population are more than ever in the medias actuality headlines. Multiple factors may explain this dynamic. The most important is certainly the rapid evolution and the adaptation capacity of these viruses. Note that the increase in travel and international trade or climate change also play an important role. On the other hand, laboratory tests and current surveillance systems are more efficient. Thus, transmission of virus from an animal reservoir to human are more easily detected, accentuating the feeling of increasing phenomenon. Virological predictions have very low reliability in epidemiology. It is a reality that we have to accept.
以前未知或部分已知的新兴病毒反复感染人类,比以往任何时候都更频繁地出现在媒体的时事头条上。多种因素可以解释这一动态。最重要的因素无疑是这些病毒的快速进化和适应能力。需要注意的是,旅行和国际贸易的增加或气候变化也起着重要作用。另一方面,实验室检测和当前的监测系统更加高效。因此,病毒从动物宿主传播到人类更容易被检测到,这加剧了人们对这一现象不断增加的感觉。病毒学预测在流行病学中的可靠性非常低。这是我们必须接受的现实。