Kotta Jonne, Möller Tiia, Orav-Kotta Helen, Pärnoja Merli
Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia.
Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia.
Mar Environ Res. 2014 Dec;102:88-101. doi: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2014.05.002. Epub 2014 May 20.
Little is known about how organisms might respond to multiple climate stressors and this lack of knowledge limits our ability to manage coastal ecosystems under contemporary climate change. Ecological models provide managers and decision makers with greater certainty that the systems affected by their decisions are accurately represented. In this study Boosted Regression Trees modelling was used to relate the cover of submerged aquatic vegetation to the abiotic environment in the brackish Baltic Sea. The analyses showed that the majority of the studied submerged aquatic species are most sensitive to changes in water temperature, current velocity and winter ice scour. Surprisingly, water salinity, turbidity and eutrophication have little impact on the distributional pattern of the studied biota. Both small and large scale environmental variability contributes to the variability of submerged aquatic vegetation. When modelling species distribution under the projected influences of climate change, all of the studied submerged aquatic species appear to be very resilient to a broad range of environmental perturbation and biomass gains are expected when seawater temperature increases. This is mainly because vegetation develops faster in spring and has a longer growing season under the projected climate change scenario.
关于生物体如何应对多种气候压力因素，我们知之甚少，而这种知识的匮乏限制了我们在当代气候变化背景下管理沿海生态系统的能力。生态模型为管理者和决策者提供了更大的确定性，即他们决策所影响的系统得到了准确呈现。在本研究中，采用增强回归树建模方法，将咸淡水波罗的海沉水水生植被的覆盖度与非生物环境联系起来。分析表明，大多数研究的沉水水生物种对水温、水流速度和冬季冰蚀的变化最为敏感。令人惊讶的是，盐度、浊度和富营养化对所研究生物群的分布模式影响很小。小规模和大规模的环境变异性都导致了沉水水生植被的变异性。在模拟气候变化预计影响下的物种分布时，所有研究的沉水水生物种似乎对广泛的环境扰动都具有很强的恢复力，并且预计随着海水温度升高生物量会增加。这主要是因为在预计的气候变化情景下，植被在春季生长更快，生长季节更长。
