临床内分泌学专业人员队伍：供需现状及未来预测

The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

作者信息

Vigersky Robert A, Fish Lisa, Hogan Paul, Stewart Andrew, Kutler Stephanie, Ladenson Paul W, McDermott Michael, Hupart Kenneth H

机构信息

Diabetes Institute (R.A.V.), Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, Bethesda, Maryland 20889; Hennepin County Medical Center (L.F.), Minneapolis, Minnesota 55425; The Lewin Group (P.H.), Falls Church, Virginia 22042; Diabetes, Obesity, and Metabolism Institute (A.S.), Mt Sinai School of Medicine, New York, New York 10029; The Endocrine Society (S.K.), Washington, DC 20036; Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism (P.W.L.), Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland 21205; Endocrinology and Diabetes Practice (M.M.), University of Colorado Hospital, Denver, Colorado 80045; and Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism (K.H.H.), Nassau University Medical Center, East Meadow, New York 11554.

出版信息

J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2014 Sep;99(9):3112-21. doi: 10.1210/jc.2014-2257. Epub 2014 Jun 18.

DOI:10.1210/jc.2014-2257

PMID:24940655

Abstract

CONTEXT

Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025.

DESIGN

A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists.

PARTICIPANTS

The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand.

RESULTS

Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force.

CONCLUSIONS

There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive strategies need to be instituted to mitigate this gap.

摘要

背景

自2003年首次发表关于成年内分泌科医生的劳动力研究以来，医疗保健服务、卫生立法以及影响内分泌学服务供需的医生劳动力发生了许多变化。

目的

本研究的目的是评估当前成年内分泌科医生的劳动力数据，首次分析儿科内分泌科医生的劳动力情况，并预测到2025年内分泌科医生的供需情况。

设计

通过对专有数据库和公开可用数据库的分析、与技术专家小组的磋商以及对获得委员会认证的内分泌科医生的在线调查结果，开发了一种劳动力模型。

参与者

内分泌学会委托莱文集团估计当前的供应情况，并预测内分泌科医生的供需差距。一个由资深内分泌科医生组成的技术专家小组提供了背景信息、临床信息和指导。

主要观察指标

测量以下内容：1）当前成年和儿科内分泌科医生的劳动力情况以及到2025年内分泌科医生的供需情况，2）为弥合供需差距所需进入内分泌科工作队伍的额外人数。

结果

目前，大约短缺1500名成年全职等效内分泌科医生和100名儿科全职等效内分泌科医生。如果培训的研究员人数不增加，成年内分泌科医生的差距将扩大到2700人。糖尿病患病率的上升进一步扩大了对成年内分泌科医生的需求。通过分别将研究员职位数量每年增加14.4%和5.5%，可以在5年和十年内弥合差距。儿科内分泌科医生的供需差距到2016年将缩小，此后按照目前新进入劳动力队伍的速度，将出现供过于求的情况。