Wang Gang, Zhang Hengduan, Cao Xin, Zhang Xiaolong, Wang Guolong, He Zhihong, Yu Changhui, Zhao Tongyan
Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health. 2014 Mar;45(2):290-8.
Dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever are common mosquito-borne diseases in tropical and subtropical regions, and are mainly transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). The international trade of used tires, coupled with its anthropophilic habit, has enabled Ae. aegypti to colonise new areas in China. We used Genetic Algorithum Rule-Set Production (GARP) to predict the putative current distribution of Ae. aegypti based on data on its distribution 20 years ago and compared this predicted distribution with the known current distribution. The putative distribution corresponded perfectly to the existing distribution. We conclude that GARP is a valid method to predict the putative future distribution of Ae. aegypti, and therefore is an important tool for the surveillance of mosquito-borne diseases in general.
登革热和登革出血热是热带和亚热带地区常见的蚊媒疾病，主要由埃及伊蚊（双翅目：蚊科）传播。废旧轮胎的国际贸易，加上其嗜人习性，使得埃及伊蚊在中国的新地区得以定殖。我们使用遗传算法规则集生成（GARP）方法，根据20年前埃及伊蚊的分布数据预测其当前假定分布，并将该预测分布与已知的当前分布进行比较。假定分布与现有分布完全吻合。我们得出结论，GARP是预测埃及伊蚊未来假定分布的有效方法，因此总体上是监测蚊媒疾病的重要工具。
