Bayesian forecasting of serum lithium concentrations. Comparison with traditional methods.

Twelve pharmacokinetic methods of estimating lithium maintenance dosage requirements were compared in 21 patients with bipolar illness. Methods which were compared included the single- and multiple-point methods of Perry, 4 non-linear regression and 6 Bayesian methods. The REVOL algorithm was employed for converging on to estimates of clearance and apparent volume of distribution for the non-linear regression and Bayesian methods. Data analysis was based on an evaluation of prediction error as a measure of bias, and absolute prediction error as a measure of precision. In a direct comparison, there were no statistically significant differences in bias or precision between any of the methods.