Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Napoli Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, I-80124 Napoli, Italy.
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italy.
Sci Rep. 2014 Sep 9;4:6297. doi: 10.1038/srep06297.
Abrupt transitions in style and intensity are common during volcanic eruptions, with an immediate impact on the surrounding territory and its population. Defining the factors trigger such sudden shifts in the eruptive behavior as well as developing methods to predict such changes during volcanic crises are crucial goals in volcanology. In our research, the combined investigation of both petrological and seismic indicators has been applied for the first time to a Vesuvius eruption, that of March 1944 that caused the present dormant state of the volcano. Our results contribute to elucidate the evolution of the conduit dynamics that generated a drastic increase in the Volcanic Explosivity Index, associated to the ejection of huge amount of volcanic ash. Remarkably, our study shows that the main paroxysm was announced by robust changes in petrology consistent with seismology, thus suggesting that the development of monitoring methods to assess the nature of ejected juvenile material combined with conventional geophysical techniques can represent a powerful tool for forecasting the evolution of an eruption towards violent behavior. This in turn is a major goal in volcanology because this evidence can help decision-makers to implement an efficient safety strategy during the emergency (scale and pace of evacuation).
火山喷发过程中，喷发样式和强度会突然发生转变，这会对周边地区及其居民产生直接影响。确定引发这种喷发行为突然转变的因素，并在火山危机期间开发预测此类变化的方法，是火山学的重要目标。在我们的研究中，首次将岩石学和地震指标的综合研究应用于维苏威火山 1944 年 3 月的喷发，该次喷发导致了火山目前的休眠状态。我们的研究结果有助于阐明导致火山爆发指数急剧增加的管道动力学演化，这与大量火山灰的喷发有关。值得注意的是，我们的研究表明，主要的爆发是由与地震学一致的岩石学上的剧烈变化预示的，这表明开发评估喷出的年轻物质特性的监测方法，并结合传统的地球物理技术，可能是预测喷发向剧烈行为演变的有力工具。这反过来又是火山学的一个主要目标，因为这一证据可以帮助决策者在紧急情况下（疏散的规模和速度）实施有效的安全策略。
