Predictors of contemporary coronary artery bypass grafting outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

The study objective was to identify the predictors of outcomes in a contemporary cohort of patients from the Reduction in cardiovascular Events by acaDesine in patients undergoing CABG (RED-CABG) trial. Despite the increasing risk profile of patients who undergo coronary artery bypass grafting, morbidity and mortality have remained low, and identification of the current predictors of adverse outcomes may permit new treatments to further improve outcomes.

METHODS

The RED-CABG trial was a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study that determined that acadesine did not reduce adverse events in moderately high-risk patients undergoing nonemergency coronary artery bypass grafting. The primary efficacy end point was a composite of all-cause death, nonfatal stroke, or the need for mechanical support for severe left ventricular dysfunction through postoperative day 28. Logistic regression modeling with stepwise variable selection identified which prespecified baseline characteristics were associated with the primary outcome. A second logistic model included intraoperative variables as potential covariates.

RESULTS

The 4 independent preoperative risk factors predictive of the composite end point were (1) a history of heart failure (odds ratio, 2.9); (2) increasing age (odds ratio, 1.033 per decade); (3) a history of peripheral vascular disease (odds ratio, 1.6); and (4) receiving aspirin before coronary artery bypass grafting (odds ratio, 0.5), which was protective. The duration of the cardiopulmonary bypass (odds ratio, 1.8) was the only intraoperative variable that contributed to adverse outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who had heart failure and preserved systolic function had a similar high risk of adverse outcomes as those with low ejection fractions, and new approaches may mitigate this risk. Recognition of patients with excessive atherosclerotic burden may permit perioperative interventions to improve their outcomes. The contemporary risks of coronary artery bypass grafting have changed, and their identification may permit new methods to improve outcomes.