Castro Ruben, Behrman Jere R, Kohler Hans-Peter, Warren Fredrick J
Ruben Castro is a researcher and professor at the Institute of Public Policy of the Universidad Diego Portales (Address: Ejército 260, Santiago de Chile, Phone 569-81497655, , Jere R. Behrman is William R. Kenan Jr. Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, and Hans-Peter Kohler is Chair, Graduate Group in Demography, Fredrick J. Warren Professor of Demography, and Professor of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania.
J Popul Econ. 2015 Jan;28(1):113-132. doi: 10.1007/s00148-013-0498-0.
The empirical literature on the impact of HIV on the quality (Q) and quantity (N) of children provides limited and somewhat mixed evidence. This study introduces individual HIV risk perceptions, as a predictor of mortality, into a Q-N investment model. In this model, higher maternal mortality predicts lower N while higher child mortality predicts lower Q. Thus the two effects together make likely negative associations between HIV and both Q and N. Based on longitudinal micro data on mothers and their children in rural Malawi, our results suggest that higher mothers' reported HIV risk reduces both child quality, as reflected in children's schooling and health, and child quantity, when the perceived risk is already moderate or high. The effects are sizable, and, in the case of Q (schooling and health) are found for children and teenagers, both boys and girls, while in the case of N they are found for young and mature women.
关于艾滋病毒对儿童质量（Q）和数量（N）影响的实证文献提供的证据有限且有些混杂。本研究将个体对艾滋病毒风险的认知作为死亡率的预测因素引入Q-N投资模型。在这个模型中，较高的孕产妇死亡率预示着较低的N，而较高的儿童死亡率预示着较低的Q。因此，这两种影响共同使得艾滋病毒与Q和N之间可能存在负相关。基于马拉维农村地区母亲及其子女的纵向微观数据，我们的结果表明，当母亲报告的艾滋病毒风险较高时，会降低儿童质量（如儿童的教育和健康状况所示）以及儿童数量，前提是感知到的风险已经处于中等或较高水平。这些影响相当大，就Q（教育和健康）而言，在儿童和青少年（包括男孩和女孩）中都能发现，而就N而言，在年轻和成熟女性中能发现。
