Lo Jamie O, Shaffer Brian L, Allen Allison J, Little Sarah E, Cheng Yvonne W, Caughey Aaron B
a Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Oregon Health and Science University , Portland , OR , USA .
b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Harvard University , Boston , MA , USA , and.
J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med. 2015;28(18):2254-8. doi: 10.3109/14767058.2014.984605. Epub 2014 Nov 28.
We examined the morbidities from delivery at earlier gestational ages versus intrauterine fetal demise (IUFD) for women with intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) to determine the optimal gestational age for delivery.
A decision-analytic model was created to compare delivery at 35 through 38 weeks gestation for different delivery strategies: (1) empiric steroids; (2) steroids if fetal lung maturity (FLM) negative; (3) wait a week and retest if FLM negative; or (4) deliver immediately. Literature review identified 18 studies that estimated IUFD in ICP; we used the mean rate, 1.74%, and assumed a uniform distribution from 34 to 40 weeks gestation. Large cohort data was used to calculate neonatal morbidity rates at each gestational age. Maternal and neonatal quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were combined. Univariate sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses were performed to test for robustness.
Immediate delivery at 36 weeks without FLM testing and steroid administration was the optimal strategy as compared to delivery at 36 weeks with steroids (+47 QALYs) and as compared to immediate delivery at 35 weeks (+210 QALYs). Our results were robust up to a 30% increase in the rate of IUFD.
Immediate delivery at 36 weeks in women with ICP is the optimal delivery strategy.
我们研究了妊娠肝内胆汁淤积症(ICP)女性在较早孕周分娩与宫内胎儿死亡(IUFD)的发病率,以确定最佳分娩孕周。
建立了一个决策分析模型,比较不同分娩策略在妊娠35至38周时的分娩情况:(1)经验性使用类固醇;(2)胎儿肺成熟度(FLM)阴性时使用类固醇;(3)FLM阴性时等待一周并重新检测;或(4)立即分娩。文献综述确定了18项估计ICP中IUFD的研究;我们使用平均发生率1.74%,并假设在妊娠34至40周呈均匀分布。使用大型队列数据计算每个孕周的新生儿发病率。合并了孕产妇和新生儿的质量调整生命年(QALY)。进行单变量敏感性分析和蒙特卡洛分析以检验稳健性。
与在36周使用类固醇分娩(增加47个QALY)以及与在35周立即分娩(增加210个QALY)相比,在未进行FLM检测和未使用类固醇的情况下于36周立即分娩是最佳策略。我们的结果在IUFD发生率增加高达30%时仍然稳健。
ICP女性在36周立即分娩是最佳分娩策略。