By-catch of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) in Baltic fisheries--a Bayesian analysis of interview survey.

Baltic seals are recovering after a population decline. The increasing seal stocks cause notable damage to fisheries in the Baltic Sea, with an unknown number of seals drowning in fishing gear every year. Thus, sustainable seal management requires updated knowledge of the by-catch of seals--the number of specimens that die in fishing gear. We analyse the by-catch of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) in Finland, Sweden, and Estonia in 2012. We collect data with interviews (35 in Finland, 54 in Sweden, and 72 in Estonia) and analyse them with a hierarchical Bayesian model. The model accounts for variability in seal abundance, seal mortality and fishing effort in different sub-areas of the Baltic Sea and allows us to predict the by-catch in areas where interview data was not available. We provide a detailed description of the survey design and interview methods, and discuss different factors affecting fishermen's motivation to report by-catch and how this may affect the results. Our analysis shows that the total yearly by-catch by trap and gill nets in Finland, Sweden and Estonia is, with 90% probability, more than 1240 but less than 2860; and the posterior median and mean of the total by-catch are 1550 and 1880 seals, respectively. Trap nets make about 88% of the total by-catch. However, results also indicate that in one of the sub-areas of this study, fishermen may have underreported their by-catch. Taking the possible underreporting into account the posterior mean of the total by-catch is between 2180 and 2380. The by-catch in our study area is likely to represent at least 90% of the total yearly grey seal by-catch in the Baltic Sea.