Hamilton Stephen G, Castro de la Guardia Laura, Derocher Andrew E, Sahanatien Vicki, Tremblay Bruno, Huard David
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2E9 Canada.
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2E9 Canada; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2E9 Canada.
PLoS One. 2014 Nov 26;9(11):e113746. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0113746. eCollection 2014.
Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.
Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.
北极地区的海冰正在减少，海洋生态系统的物理特征也在发生变化。北极熊（ Ursus maritimus ）已被认定易受海冰条件变化的影响。我们利用2006年至2100年加拿大北极群岛的海冰预测，通过北极熊能量学模型得出的指标，深入了解北极熊在栖息地丧失方面面临的保护挑战。
随着预计的气候变暖，到21世纪末，整个地区从多年冰向年冰覆盖的转变以及无冰期的延长，可能对北极熊至关重要。群岛中的每个北极熊种群可能会经历2至5个月的无冰期，而目前不存在这种情况。我们确定了在空间和时间上明确的无冰期，其持续时间超过了北极熊营养和繁殖需求所需的时间。
结论/意义：在照常的气候预测下，到2100年，整个群岛的北极熊可能面临饥饿和繁殖失败。
