Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
Polar Bears International, Bozeman, Montana, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2024 Aug;27(8):e14486. doi: 10.1111/ele.14486.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, threatening the persistence of many Arctic species. It is uncertain if Arctic wildlife will have sufficient time to adapt to such rapidly warming environments. We used genetic forecasting to measure the risk of maladaptation to warming temperatures and sea ice loss in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled across the Canadian Arctic. We found evidence for local adaptation to sea ice conditions and temperature. Forecasting of genome-environment mismatches for predicted climate scenarios suggested that polar bears in the Canadian high Arctic had the greatest risk of becoming maladapted to climate warming. While Canadian high Arctic bears may be the most likely to become maladapted, all polar bears face potentially negative outcomes to climate change. Given the importance of the sea ice habitat to polar bears, we expect that maladaptation to future warming is already widespread across Canada.
北极地区的变暖速度是世界其他地区的四倍，这威胁到了许多北极物种的生存。目前还不确定北极野生动物是否有足够的时间来适应这种快速变暖的环境。我们利用遗传预测来衡量北极熊（Ursus maritimus）在加拿大北极地区的样本在适应变暖的温度和海冰减少方面的不适风险。我们发现了对海冰条件和温度的本地适应的证据。对预测气候情景的基因组-环境不匹配的预测表明，加拿大北极高地区的北极熊最有可能不适应气候变暖。虽然加拿大北极高地区的熊最有可能变得不适应，但所有的北极熊都面临着气候变化可能带来的负面结果。考虑到海冰生境对北极熊的重要性，我们预计未来的变暖已经在加拿大广泛存在。
