Archer Debra C, Costain Deborah A, Sherlock Chris
Institute of Infection and Global Health/School of Veterinary Science, University of Liverpool, Leahurst Campus, Neston, United Kingdom.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2014 Dec 2;9(12):e112072. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0112072. eCollection 2014.
Idiopathic focal eosinophilic enteritis (IFEE) is an emerging cause of abdominal pain (colic) in horses that frequently requires surgical intervention to prevent death. The epidemiology of IFEE is poorly understood and it is difficult to diagnose pre-operatively. The aetiology of this condition and methods of possible prevention are currently unknown. The aims of this study were to investigate temporal and spatial heterogeneity in IFEE risk and to ascertain the effect of horse age on risk.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A retrospective, nested case-control study was undertaken using data from 85 IFEE cases and 848 randomly selected controls admitted to a UK equine hospital for exploratory laparotomy to investigate the cause of colic over a 10-year period. Generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to quantify temporal and age effects on the odds of IFEE and to provide mapped estimates of 'residual' risk over the study region. The relative risk of IFEE increased over the study period (p = 0.001) and a seasonal pattern was evident (p<0.01) with greatest risk of IFEE being identified between the months of July and November. IFEE risk decreased with increasing age (p<0.001) with younger (0-5 years old) horses being at greatest risk. The mapped surface estimate exhibited significantly atypical sub-regions (p<0.001) with increased IFEE risk in horses residing in the North-West of the study region.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: IFEE was found to exhibit both spatial and temporal variation in risk and is more likely to occur in younger horses. This information may help to identify horses at increased risk of IFEE, provide clues about the aetiology of this condition and to identify areas that require further research.
特发性局灶性嗜酸性肠炎(IFEE)是马腹痛(绞痛)的一个新出现的病因,常需手术干预以防止死亡。IFEE的流行病学了解甚少,术前难以诊断。目前尚不清楚这种疾病的病因及可能的预防方法。本研究的目的是调查IFEE风险的时间和空间异质性,并确定马的年龄对风险的影响。
方法/主要发现:采用回顾性巢式病例对照研究,使用来自一家英国马医院的85例IFEE病例和848例随机选择的对照的数据,这些病例和对照在10年期间因探索性剖腹术入院以调查绞痛原因。广义相加模型(GAMs)用于量化时间和年龄对IFEE发生几率的影响,并提供研究区域内“残余”风险的地图估计。在研究期间,IFEE的相对风险增加(p = 0.001),并且明显存在季节性模式(p<0.01),7月至11月期间IFEE风险最高。IFEE风险随年龄增加而降低(p<0.001),年龄较小(0 - 5岁)的马风险最高。地图表面估计显示出明显的非典型子区域(p<0.001),研究区域西北部的马IFEE风险增加。
结论/意义:发现IFEE在风险上表现出空间和时间变化,并且更可能发生在年轻马匹中。这些信息可能有助于识别IFEE风险增加的马匹,提供有关这种疾病病因的线索,并识别需要进一步研究的区域。