Chatterji Somnath, Byles Julie, Cutler David, Seeman Teresa, Verdes Emese
Surveys, Measurement, and Analysis, Health Statistics and Information Systems, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Research Centre for Gender Health and Ageing, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia.
Lancet. 2015 Feb 7;385(9967):563-75. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61462-8. Epub 2014 Nov 6.
Ageing is a dynamic process, and trends in the health status of older adults aged at least 60 years vary over time because of several factors. We examined reported trends in morbidity and mortality in older adults during the past two decades to identify patterns of ageing across the world. We showed some evidence for compression of morbidity (ie, a reduced amount of time spent in worse health), in four types of studies: 1) of good quality based on assessment criteria scores; 2) those in which a disability-related or impairment-related measure of morbidity was used; 3) longitudinal studies; or 4) studies undertaken in the USA and other high-income countries. Many studies, however, reported contrasting evidence (ie, for an expansion of morbidity), but with different methods, these measures are not directly comparable. Expansion of morbidity was more common when trends in chronic disease prevalence were studied. Our secondary analysis of data from longitudinal ageing surveys presents similar results. However, patterns of limitations in functioning vary substantially between countries and within countries over time, with no discernible explanation. Data from low-income countries are very sparse, and efforts to obtain information about the health of older adults in less-developed regions of the world are urgently needed. We especially need studies that focus on refining measurements of health, functioning, and disability in older people, with a core set of domains of functioning, that investigate the effects of these evolving patterns on the health-care system and their economic implications.
衰老乃一动态过程,由于多种因素,60岁及以上老年人的健康状况趋势会随时间而变化。我们研究了过去二十年中老年人发病率和死亡率的报告趋势,以确定全球范围内的衰老模式。在四类研究中,我们发现了一些支持发病期压缩(即健康状况较差的时间减少)的证据:1)基于评估标准分数的高质量研究;2)使用与残疾或损伤相关的发病率衡量指标的研究;3)纵向研究;或4)在美国及其他高收入国家开展的研究。然而,许多研究报告了相反的证据(即发病期延长),但由于方法不同,这些衡量指标无法直接比较。在研究慢性病患病率趋势时,发病期延长更为常见。我们对纵向衰老调查数据的二次分析得出了类似结果。然而,不同国家之间以及同一国家内部,功能受限模式随时间变化差异很大,且无明显解释。低收入国家的数据非常稀少,迫切需要努力获取世界欠发达地区老年人健康状况的信息。我们尤其需要专注于完善老年人健康、功能和残疾测量方法的研究,这些研究应围绕一组核心功能领域展开,探讨这些不断变化的模式对医疗保健系统的影响及其经济意义。