Predicting the potential invasion suitability of regions to cassava lacebug pests (Heteroptera: Tingidae: Vatiga spp.).

Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is one of the most important staple crops for small farmers in the tropics, feeding about 800 million people worldwide. It is currently cultivated in South and Central America, Africa and Asia. The genus Vatiga is widespread throughout the Neotropical region. Its species are sympatric and feed exclusively on cassava. The main objectives of this paper are: (1) to assess the potential distribution of Vatiga, one of the most relevant pests of cassava; (2) to project the resulting models onto the world; (3) to recognize areas with suitable and optimal climates (and thus, high probability) for future colonization, and (4) to compare this model with the harvested area of cassava analyzing the climatic variables required by both the host and the pest species. Species distribution models were built using Maxent (v3.3.3k) with bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database in 2.5 arc min resolution across the globe. Our model shows that Vatiga has the potential to expand its current distribution into other suitable areas, and could invade other regions where cassava is already cultivated, e.g., Central Africa and Asia. Considering the results and the high host specificity of Vatiga, its recent appearance in Réunion Island (Africa) poses a serious threat, as nearby areas are potentially suitable for invasion and could serve as dispersal routes enabling Vatiga to reach the continent. The present work may help prevention or early detection of Vatiga spp. in areas where cassava is grown.