Kim Minzee, Longhofer Wesley, Boyle Elizabeth Heger, Nyseth Hollie
Department of Sociology, Ewha Womans University.
Goizueta Business School, Emory University.
Law Soc Rev. 2013 Sep;47(3):589-619. doi: 10.1111/lasr.12033.
Using the case of adolescent fertility, we ask the questions of whether and when national laws have an effect on outcomes above and beyond the effects of international law and global organizing. To answer these questions, we utilize a fixed-effect time-series regression model to analyze the impact of minimum-age-of-marriage laws in 115 poor- and middle-income countries from 1989 to 2007. We find that countries with strict laws setting the minimum age of marriage at 18 experienced the most dramatic decline in rates of adolescent fertility. Trends in countries that set this age at 18 but allowed exceptions (for example, marriage with parental consent) were indistinguishable from countries that had no such minimum-age-of-marriage law. Thus, policies that adhere strictly to global norms are more likely to elicit desired outcomes. The article concludes with a discussion of what national law means in a diffuse global system where multiple actors and institutions make the independent effect of law difficult to identify.
以青少年生育率为例，我们提出这样的问题：国内法律在国际法和全球组织的影响之外，是否以及何时会对相关结果产生影响。为了回答这些问题，我们运用固定效应时间序列回归模型，分析了1989年至2007年期间115个中低收入国家的最低结婚年龄法律的影响。我们发现，将最低结婚年龄设定为18岁的严格法律的国家，青少年生育率下降最为显著。将该年龄设定为18岁但允许例外情况（例如，经父母同意结婚）的国家的趋势，与没有此类最低结婚年龄法律的国家没有区别。因此，严格遵守全球规范的政策更有可能产生预期的结果。文章最后讨论了在一个多个行为体和机构使得法律的独立影响难以确定的分散的全球体系中，国内法意味着什么。
