Pace William, Montz Burrell
Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment, East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina.
Professor and Chair, Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment, East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina.
J Emerg Manag. 2014 Nov-Dec;12(6):467-77. doi: 10.5055/jem.2014.0210.
This research explores variations in risk perception with location and changes in the intensity of a hurricane (Hurricane Irene in 2011).
Surveys were mailed to a random sample of 601 year-round residents of two counties in coastal North Carolina. Within each county, areas were chosen based on their risk with respect to wind or storm surge; an equal number of surveys were sent to each area. A 31 percent return rate was achieved.
Dare County on the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Beaufort County on the Inner Banks were chosen as study areas because of the nature and extent of damage incurred from Hurricane Irene.
Because Hurricane Irene was downgraded before it made landfall in North Carolina, it was anticipated that residents would perceive themselves to be at less risk to hurricane-related hazards with differences related to location on the Atlantic Ocean or on the Sound.
Little difference was found between the Inner and Outer Banks locations such that all reported the change in intensity influenced their perceptions by reducing the sense of risk. This varied somewhat, but not significantly, by hazard area.
The downgrading of Hurricane Irene created a false sense of security. Residents of the study area believed themselves to be at low risk and were unlikely to evacuate, despite warnings. The long duration of the event, however, led to significant damages, surprising many, and suggesting the need to emphasize impacts in messaging, no matter the storm intensity.
本研究探讨了风险认知随地点的变化以及飓风（2011年艾琳飓风）强度变化的情况。
向北卡罗来纳州沿海两个县的601名全年居民随机抽样邮寄调查问卷。在每个县内，根据其受风灾或风暴潮影响的风险程度选择区域；向每个区域发送同等数量的调查问卷。回收率为31%。
北卡罗来纳州外滩的 Dare 县和内岸的 Beaufort 县被选为研究区域，原因是艾琳飓风造成的破坏性质和程度。
由于艾琳飓风在登陆北卡罗来纳州之前强度减弱，预计居民会认为自己面临与飓风相关危害的风险降低，且这种风险认知的差异与位于大西洋还是海峡有关。
在内岸和外滩地区之间未发现明显差异，所有地区都报告说强度的变化通过降低风险感影响了他们的认知。这种情况因受灾区域略有不同，但差异不显著。
艾琳飓风的强度减弱造成了一种虚假的安全感。研究区域的居民认为自己风险较低，尽管收到警告也不太可能撤离。然而，该事件持续时间较长，导致了重大损失，令许多人感到惊讶，这表明无论风暴强度如何，在信息传达中都需要强调其影响。
