Escobar Luis E, Lira-Noriega Andrés, Medina-Vogel Gonzalo, Townsend Peterson A
Facultad de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Andres Bello, Santiago, Chile.
Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, USA.
Geospat Health. 2014 Nov;9(1):221-9. doi: 10.4081/gh.2014.19.
Emerging infectious diseases can present serious threats to wildlife, even to the point of causing extinction. Whitenose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) is causing an epizootic in bats that is expanding rapidly, both geographically and taxonomically. Little is known of the ecology and distributional potential of this intercontinental pathogen. We address this gap via ecological niche models that characterise coarse resolution niche differences between fungus populations on different continents, identifying areas potentially vulnerable to infection in South America. Here we explore a novel approach to identifying areas of potential distribution across novel geographic regions that avoids perilious extrapolation into novel environments. European and North American fungus populations show differential use of environmental space, but rather than niche differentiation, we find that changes are best attributed to climatic differences between the two continents. Suitable areas for spread of the pathogen were identified across southern South America; however caution should be taken to avoid underestimating the potential for spread of this pathogen in South America.
新发传染病会对野生动物构成严重威胁，甚至可能导致物种灭绝。白鼻真菌（毁灭假裸囊菌）正在引发蝙蝠的 epizootic，且在地理范围和分类学上都在迅速扩大。对于这种跨洲病原体的生态学和分布潜力知之甚少。我们通过生态位模型来填补这一空白，该模型刻画了不同大陆上真菌种群之间的粗略分辨率生态位差异，从而确定南美洲可能易受感染的区域。在这里，我们探索了一种新方法来识别跨新地理区域的潜在分布区域，避免危险地外推到新环境中。欧洲和北美真菌种群对环境空间的利用存在差异，但我们发现，与其说是生态位分化，不如说这些变化最好归因于两大洲之间的气候差异。已确定病原体在南美洲南部有适合传播的区域；然而，应谨慎避免低估该病原体在南美洲的传播潜力。
