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通过融入进化弹性、参与式建模和适应性管理来应对影响评估中的不确定性、模糊性和无知性。

Managing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in impact assessment by embedding evolutionary resilience, participatory modelling and adaptive management.

作者信息

Bond Alan, Morrison-Saunders Angus, Gunn Jill A E, Pope Jenny, Retief Francois

机构信息

School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK; School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University, South Africa.

School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University, South Africa; Environmental Science, Murdoch University, Australia.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2015 Mar 15;151:97-104. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.030. Epub 2014 Dec 26.


DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.030
PMID:25546844
Abstract

In the context of continuing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in impact assessment (IA) prediction, the case is made that existing IA processes are based on false 'normal' assumptions that science can solve problems and transfer knowledge into policy. Instead, a 'post-normal science' approach is needed that acknowledges the limits of current levels of scientific understanding. We argue that this can be achieved through embedding evolutionary resilience into IA; using participatory workshops; and emphasising adaptive management. The goal is an IA process capable of informing policy choices in the face of uncertain influences acting on socio-ecological systems. We propose a specific set of process steps to operationalise this post-normal science approach which draws on work undertaken by the Resilience Alliance. This process differs significantly from current models of IA, as it has a far greater focus on avoidance of, or adaptation to (through incorporating adaptive management subsequent to decisions), unwanted future scenarios rather than a focus on the identification of the implications of a single preferred vision. Implementing such a process would represent a culture change in IA practice as a lack of knowledge is assumed and explicit, and forms the basis of future planning activity, rather than being ignored.

摘要

在影响评估(IA)预测持续存在不确定性、模糊性和无知的背景下,有人认为现有的IA过程基于错误的“常态”假设,即科学可以解决问题并将知识转化为政策。相反,需要一种“后常态科学”方法,承认当前科学理解水平的局限性。我们认为,这可以通过将进化适应力融入IA、使用参与式研讨会以及强调适应性管理来实现。目标是建立一个IA过程,能够在面对影响社会生态系统的不确定因素时为政策选择提供信息。我们提出了一套具体的流程步骤,以实施这种借鉴适应力联盟所开展工作的后常态科学方法。该过程与当前的IA模型有很大不同,因为它更侧重于避免或适应(通过在决策后纳入适应性管理)不良的未来情景,而不是侧重于确定单一首选愿景的影响。实施这样一个过程将代表IA实践中的文化变革,因为知识的缺乏被明确假定,并构成未来规划活动的基础,而不是被忽视。

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