Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria.
J Environ Manage. 2013 Jan 15;114:461-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.09.028. Epub 2012 Nov 26.
The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises.
人为温室气体排放的持续增加以及缺乏国际社会就严格的气候变化缓解政策达成共识,突显了适应气候变化以应对气候系统几乎不可避免变化的重要性。林业适应措施的前置时间特别长。因此,及时实施适应措施对于减少森林生态系统面临的巨大气候脆弱性至关重要。然而,由于未来的环境条件以及社会对森林的未来需求具有固有不确定性,适应的核心要求是对各种可能的未来具有稳健性。在这里,我们明确探讨了气候和社会不确定性在森林管理中的作用,并在多目标可持续森林管理(SFM)的背景下解决适应措施稳健性的问题。我们以奥地利联邦森林(AFF)为案例研究,并使用基于生态系统建模、多准则决策分析和从业者参与的综合脆弱性评估框架。我们通过三种气候变化情景明确考虑了气候不确定性,并通过三种关于 SFM 指标的社会偏好情景考虑了未来社会需求的不确定性。我们发现,气候和社会不确定性对管理规划预期绩效的影响处于同一数量级,这突显了气候变化适应需要社会-生态综合观点的概念。此外,我们对适应措施的分析表明,减少气候变化不利影响和促进适应能力之间存在相当大的权衡。这一发现意味着在适应的这两个总体目标之间进行优先级排序是管理规划所必需的,我们建议可以利用不确定性分析:当社会-生态不确定性引起的变化使得旨在减少气候变化影响的措施在统计上变得无足轻重时(即,在所研究的 AFF 案例研究的大约三分之一的管理单元中),促进适应能力被建议作为适应的首选途径。我们的结论是,气候变化适应需要在预期未来条件和建立应对未知和意外情况的能力之间取得平衡。